Back to News CBC Poll Tracker   Eric Grenier CBC

Oct 20, 2019


Member Story

CBC Federal Elections Prediction Poll Tracker 2109

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National Picture

The Liberals have regained their seat advantage over the Conservatives, but remain in a close national race in public support and well below the threshold required for a majority government. The New Democrats and Bloc Québécois, after making significant gains in the polls, appear to be hitting a ceiling — but could hold the balance of power in a minority parliament.

The Regional Picture
The Conservatives are ahead in western Canada while the Liberals lead in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. The New Democrats are close behind the Liberals in third place throughout the west. The Bloc is only narrowly behind the Liberals in Quebec, while the Conservatives and NDP are well behind. The Greens are holding double-digit support in B.C. and Atlantic Canada. The People’s Party has been unable to make a mark during this campaign and its only realistic hope for a seat is Maxime Bernier.